Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Correlation vs. Causation

One of the arguments students will encounter repeatedly is that of causation and correlation.  Whether the argument is about Anthropogenic Global Warming, or minority incarceration rates, or gun control, or smoking, or whatever subject, all too often students (and voters, and taxpayers) fall prey to this logical fallacy.




The blog that this graph links to concerns drug discovery and the pharmacology industry.  The problem of understanding correlation and causation is universal.  Clearly, one would have a hard time finding a logical connection between the importation of fruit and automotive fatalities (unless the fruit in question was the banana, and the old "slipped on a banana peel" joke could be put into play).  But, according to these statistics carefully graphed, there is a direct correlation between the two.

Students must constantly be on guard when presented with such compelling evidence.  Correlation does not imply causation - a mantra for the coming decade.

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